Atlético Baleares 2–1 Peña Deportiva

Atlético Baleares

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Peña Deportiva

1/5/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Estadio Balear

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Atlético Baleares64%

×Draw20%

Peña Deportiva16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético BalearesExpected goals in this matchPeña Deportiva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

0.93

Atlético Baleares

2.10

Peña Deportiva

0.93

Atlético Baleares creates 126% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

2.27

creates per match

1.14

0.73

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Atlético Baleares

2.27

Peña Deportiva

1.14

allows per match

Atlético Baleares

0.73

Peña Deportiva

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Baleares+0.00on par

Peña Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Baleares ↓

Peña Deportiva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Atlético Baleares or draw

84%

Atlético Baleares or Peña Deportiva

80%

Draw or Peña Deportiva

36%

Winning margin

Atlético Baleares wins by 2+

40%

Peña Deportiva wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Atlético Baleares 1+ goals

88%

Atlético Baleares 2+ goals

62%

Atlético Baleares 3+ goals

35%

Peña Deportiva 1+ goals

61%

Peña Deportiva 2+ goals

24%

Peña Deportiva 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)

80%

Peña Deportiva (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Baleares at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Peña Deportiva away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Baleares attack 2.27 + Peña Deportiva defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.10

Peña Deportiva attack 1.14 + Atlético Baleares defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Atlético Baleares scores more

64%

level

20%

Peña Deportiva scores more

16%

Atlético Baleares at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Atlético Baleares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff