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Peña Azagresa vs Lourdes — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Peña Azagresa
Peña Azagresa
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Lourdes
Lourdes
1/17/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 13Estadio Miguel Sola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Peña Azagresa54%
×Draw23%
Lourdes23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peña Azagresa
1.79
Lourdes
1.08

Peña Azagresa creates 66% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 29 away

creates per match

Peña Azagresa
1.66
Lourdes
0.86

allows per match

Peña Azagresa
1.31
Lourdes
1.93

finishing

Peña Azagresa+0.00on par
Lourdes+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peña Azagresa ↓

Lourdes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Peña Azagresa or draw
77%
Peña Azagresa or Lourdes
77%
Draw or Lourdes
46%

Winning margin

Peña Azagresa wins by 2+
30%
Lourdes wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Peña Azagresa 1+ goals
83%
Peña Azagresa 2+ goals
53%
Peña Azagresa 3+ goals
26%
Lourdes 1+ goals
66%
Lourdes 2+ goals
29%
Lourdes 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Peña Azagresa (draw refunded)
70%
Lourdes (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peña Azagresa at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

Lourdes away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.93 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peña Azagresa attack 1.66 + Lourdes defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.79

Lourdes attack 0.86 + Peña Azagresa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Peña Azagresa scores more
54%
level
23%
Lourdes scores more
23%

Peña Azagresa at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Peña Azagresa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Peña Azagresa 3–1 Lourdes

Peña Azagresa beat Lourdes 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on January 17, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Sola in Azagra.