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Lourdes vs Peña Azagresa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Lourdes
Lourdes
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Peña Azagresa
Peña Azagresa
10/24/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 2Estadio Luis Asarta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Lourdes52%
×Draw23%
Peña Azagresa25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lourdes
1.84
Peña Azagresa
1.21

Lourdes creates 52% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 28 away

creates per match

Lourdes
1.25
Peña Azagresa
1.14

allows per match

Lourdes
1.29
Peña Azagresa
2.43

finishing

Lourdes+0.00on par
Peña Azagresa+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lourdes ↓

Peña Azagresa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Lourdes or draw
75%
Lourdes or Peña Azagresa
77%
Draw or Peña Azagresa
48%

Winning margin

Lourdes wins by 2+
29%
Peña Azagresa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lourdes 1+ goals
84%
Lourdes 2+ goals
55%
Lourdes 3+ goals
28%
Peña Azagresa 1+ goals
70%
Peña Azagresa 2+ goals
34%
Peña Azagresa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lourdes (draw refunded)
67%
Peña Azagresa (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lourdes at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

Peña Azagresa away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.43 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lourdes attack 1.25 + Peña Azagresa defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.84

Peña Azagresa attack 1.14 + Lourdes defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lourdes scores more
52%
level
23%
Peña Azagresa scores more
25%

Lourdes at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lourdes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lourdes vs Peña Azagresa

Lourdes and Peña Azagresa drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on October 24, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Asarta in Tudela.