Peña Azagresa 2–3 Huarte: Result & Stats

Peña Azagresa

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Huarte

1/11/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 19Estadio Miguel Sola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Peña Azagresa42%

×Draw25%

Huarte33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Peña AzagresaExpected goals in this matchHuarte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.32

Peña Azagresa

1.53

Huarte

1.32

Peña Azagresa creates 16% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 108 away

1.66

creates per match

1.33

1.31

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Peña Azagresa

1.66

Huarte

1.33

allows per match

Peña Azagresa

1.31

Huarte

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peña Azagresa+0.00on par

Huarte+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peña Azagresa ↓

Huarte →

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Peña Azagresa or draw

67%

Peña Azagresa or Huarte

75%

Draw or Huarte

58%

Winning margin

Peña Azagresa wins by 2+

21%

Huarte wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Peña Azagresa 1+ goals

78%

Peña Azagresa 2+ goals

45%

Peña Azagresa 3+ goals

20%

Huarte 1+ goals

73%

Huarte 2+ goals

38%

Huarte 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Peña Azagresa (draw refunded)

56%

Huarte (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Peña Azagresa at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

Huarte away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.41 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Peña Azagresa attack 1.66 + Huarte defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.53

Huarte attack 1.33 + Peña Azagresa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Peña Azagresa scores more

42%

level

25%

Huarte scores more

33%

Peña Azagresa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Peña Azagresa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff