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Huarte vs Peña Azagresa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Huarte
Huarte
CANC
22:00
Peña Azagresa
Peña Azagresa
5/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 38Estadio Areta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Huarte61%
×Draw21%
Peña Azagresa19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huarte
2.11
Peña Azagresa
1.09

Huarte creates 94% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 28 away

creates per match

Huarte
1.79
Peña Azagresa
1.14

allows per match

Huarte
1.05
Peña Azagresa
2.43

finishing

Huarte+0.00on par
Peña Azagresa+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huarte ↓

Peña Azagresa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Huarte or draw
81%
Huarte or Peña Azagresa
79%
Draw or Peña Azagresa
39%

Winning margin

Huarte wins by 2+
37%
Peña Azagresa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Huarte 1+ goals
88%
Huarte 2+ goals
62%
Huarte 3+ goals
35%
Peña Azagresa 1+ goals
66%
Peña Azagresa 2+ goals
30%
Peña Azagresa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Huarte (draw refunded)
76%
Peña Azagresa (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huarte at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.05 · 107 matches

Peña Azagresa away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.43 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huarte attack 1.79 + Peña Azagresa defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.11

Peña Azagresa attack 1.14 + Huarte defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Huarte scores more
61%
level
21%
Peña Azagresa scores more
19%

Huarte at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Huarte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Huarte host Peña Azagresa

May 16, 2020: Huarte take on Peña Azagresa in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Huarte host Peña Azagresa at Estadio Areta.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.