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Peña Azagresa vs Burladés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Peña Azagresa
Peña Azagresa
CANC
22:00
Burladés
Burladés
5/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 37Estadio Miguel Sola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Peña Azagresa46%
×Draw26%
Burladés28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peña Azagresa
1.52
Burladés
1.13

Peña Azagresa creates 35% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 90 away

creates per match

Peña Azagresa
1.66
Burladés
0.94

allows per match

Peña Azagresa
1.31
Burladés
1.37

finishing

Peña Azagresa+0.00on par
Burladés+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peña Azagresa ↓

Burladés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Peña Azagresa or draw
72%
Peña Azagresa or Burladés
74%
Draw or Burladés
54%

Winning margin

Peña Azagresa wins by 2+
23%
Burladés wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Peña Azagresa 1+ goals
78%
Peña Azagresa 2+ goals
45%
Peña Azagresa 3+ goals
20%
Burladés 1+ goals
68%
Burladés 2+ goals
31%
Burladés 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Peña Azagresa (draw refunded)
62%
Burladés (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peña Azagresa at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

Burladés away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.37 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peña Azagresa attack 1.66 + Burladés defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.52

Burladés attack 0.94 + Peña Azagresa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Peña Azagresa scores more
46%
level
26%
Burladés scores more
28%

Peña Azagresa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Peña Azagresa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Peña Azagresa host Burladés

May 9, 2020: Peña Azagresa take on Burladés in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Peña Azagresa host Burladés at Estadio Miguel Sola.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.