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Burladés vs Peña Azagresa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Burladés
Burladés
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Peña Azagresa
Peña Azagresa
1/4/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 18Estadio Ripagaina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Burladés50%
×Draw23%
Peña Azagresa27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burladés
1.89
Peña Azagresa
1.34

Burladés creates 41% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 28 away

creates per match

Burladés
1.34
Peña Azagresa
1.14

allows per match

Burladés
1.54
Peña Azagresa
2.43

finishing

Burladés+0.00on par
Peña Azagresa+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burladés ↓

Peña Azagresa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Burladés or draw
73%
Burladés or Peña Azagresa
77%
Draw or Peña Azagresa
50%

Winning margin

Burladés wins by 2+
28%
Peña Azagresa wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Burladés 1+ goals
85%
Burladés 2+ goals
56%
Burladés 3+ goals
29%
Peña Azagresa 1+ goals
74%
Peña Azagresa 2+ goals
39%
Peña Azagresa 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Burladés (draw refunded)
65%
Peña Azagresa (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burladés at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.54 · 91 matches

Peña Azagresa away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.43 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burladés attack 1.34 + Peña Azagresa defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.89

Peña Azagresa attack 1.14 + Burladés defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Burladés scores more
50%
level
23%
Peña Azagresa scores more
27%

Burladés at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Burladés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Burladés 2–1 Peña Azagresa

Burladés beat Peña Azagresa 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on January 4, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Ripagaina in Burlada.