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Peña Azagresa vs Beti Onak — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Peña Azagresa
Peña Azagresa
CANC
00:00
Beti Onak
Beti Onak
4/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 34Estadio Miguel Sola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Peña Azagresa46%
×Draw25%
Beti Onak29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peña Azagresa
1.58
Beti Onak
1.22

Peña Azagresa creates 30% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 109 away

creates per match

Peña Azagresa
1.66
Beti Onak
1.13

allows per match

Peña Azagresa
1.31
Beti Onak
1.51

finishing

Peña Azagresa+0.00on par
Beti Onak+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peña Azagresa ↓

Beti Onak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Peña Azagresa or draw
71%
Peña Azagresa or Beti Onak
75%
Draw or Beti Onak
54%

Winning margin

Peña Azagresa wins by 2+
23%
Beti Onak wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Peña Azagresa 1+ goals
79%
Peña Azagresa 2+ goals
47%
Peña Azagresa 3+ goals
21%
Beti Onak 1+ goals
70%
Beti Onak 2+ goals
34%
Beti Onak 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Peña Azagresa (draw refunded)
61%
Beti Onak (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peña Azagresa at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

Beti Onak away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.51 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peña Azagresa attack 1.66 + Beti Onak defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.58

Beti Onak attack 1.13 + Peña Azagresa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Peña Azagresa scores more
46%
level
25%
Beti Onak scores more
29%

Peña Azagresa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Peña Azagresa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Peña Azagresa vs Beti Onak — Match Preview

Peña Azagresa face Beti Onak on April 19, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Peña Azagresa host Beti Onak at Estadio Miguel Sola.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.