Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Beti Onak vs Peña Azagresa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Beti Onak
Beti Onak
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Peña Azagresa
Peña Azagresa
5/22/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 2nd Phase - 5Estadio Lorenzo Goikoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Beti Onak56%
×Draw22%
Peña Azagresa23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beti Onak
1.97
Peña Azagresa
1.18

Beti Onak creates 67% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 28 away

creates per match

Beti Onak
1.50
Peña Azagresa
1.14

allows per match

Beti Onak
1.22
Peña Azagresa
2.43

finishing

Beti Onak+0.00on par
Peña Azagresa+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beti Onak ↓

Peña Azagresa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Beti Onak or draw
77%
Beti Onak or Peña Azagresa
78%
Draw or Peña Azagresa
44%

Winning margin

Beti Onak wins by 2+
33%
Peña Azagresa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Beti Onak 1+ goals
86%
Beti Onak 2+ goals
58%
Beti Onak 3+ goals
31%
Peña Azagresa 1+ goals
69%
Peña Azagresa 2+ goals
33%
Peña Azagresa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Beti Onak (draw refunded)
71%
Peña Azagresa (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beti Onak at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.22 · 110 matches

Peña Azagresa away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.43 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beti Onak attack 1.50 + Peña Azagresa defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.97

Peña Azagresa attack 1.14 + Beti Onak defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Beti Onak scores more
56%
level
22%
Peña Azagresa scores more
23%

Beti Onak at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Beti Onak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Beti Onak 3 – 1 Peña Azagresa

Beti Onak beat Peña Azagresa 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on May 22, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Lorenzo Goikoa in Villava.