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Pelister vs Labunishta — Second League 2019

Pelister
Pelister
CANC
00:00
Labunishta
Labunishta
3/22/2020Second LeagueSecond League · West - 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Pelister69%
×Draw21%
Labunishta9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pelister
1.79
Labunishta
0.48

Pelister creates 273% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 23 away

creates per match

Pelister
2.28
Labunishta
0.48

allows per match

Pelister
0.49
Labunishta
1.30

finishing

Pelister+0.00on par
Labunishta+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pelister ↓

Labunishta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Pelister or draw
91%
Pelister or Labunishta
79%
Draw or Labunishta
31%

Winning margin

Pelister wins by 2+
42%
Labunishta wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Pelister 1+ goals
83%
Pelister 2+ goals
53%
Pelister 3+ goals
26%
Labunishta 1+ goals
38%
Labunishta 2+ goals
8%
Labunishta 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Pelister (draw refunded)
88%
Labunishta (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pelister at home — creates 2.28, concedes 0.49 · 39 matches

Labunishta away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pelister attack 2.28 + Labunishta defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.79

Labunishta attack 0.48 + Pelister defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Pelister scores more
69%
level
21%
Labunishta scores more
9%

Pelister at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Pelister will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Pelister host Labunishta

March 22, 2020: Pelister take on Labunishta in Second League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.