Labunishta 0–0 Pelister: Result & Stats

Labunishta

FT

0 – 0

Pelister

4/27/2019

Second League · West - 23Gradska Plaža Stadium (Struga)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Labunishta37%

×Draw26%

Pelister37%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LabunishtaExpected goals in this matchPelister

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.30

Labunishta

1.29

Pelister

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 43 away

1.59

creates per match

1.51

1.09

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Labunishta

1.59

Pelister

1.51

allows per match

Labunishta

1.09

Pelister

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Labunishta+0.00on par

Pelister+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Labunishta ↓

Pelister →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Labunishta or draw

63%

Labunishta or Pelister

74%

Draw or Pelister

63%

Winning margin

Labunishta wins by 2+

16%

Pelister wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Labunishta 1+ goals

72%

Labunishta 2+ goals

37%

Labunishta 3+ goals

14%

Pelister 1+ goals

73%

Pelister 2+ goals

37%

Pelister 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Labunishta (draw refunded)

50%

Pelister (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Labunishta at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

Pelister away — creates 1.51, concedes 0.98 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Labunishta attack 1.59 + Pelister defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.29

Pelister attack 1.51 + Labunishta defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Labunishta scores more

37%

level

26%

Pelister scores more

37%

Labunishta at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Labunishta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff