Pelister 1–0 Kozuv Gevgelija: Result & Stats

Pelister

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kozuv Gevgelija

3/9/2024

Second League · Round 20Stadion pod Tumbe Kafe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Pelister64%

×Draw22%

Kozuv Gevgelija14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PelisterExpected goals in this matchKozuv Gevgelija

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

0.70

Pelister

1.82

Kozuv Gevgelija

0.70

Pelister creates 160% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 81 away

2.34

creates per match

0.89

0.50

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Pelister

2.34

Kozuv Gevgelija

0.89

allows per match

Pelister

0.50

Kozuv Gevgelija

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pelister+0.00on par

Kozuv Gevgelija+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pelister ↓

Kozuv Gevgelija →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Pelister or draw

86%

Pelister or Kozuv Gevgelija

78%

Draw or Kozuv Gevgelija

36%

Winning margin

Pelister wins by 2+

38%

Kozuv Gevgelija wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Pelister 1+ goals

84%

Pelister 2+ goals

54%

Pelister 3+ goals

27%

Kozuv Gevgelija 1+ goals

50%

Kozuv Gevgelija 2+ goals

16%

Kozuv Gevgelija 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Pelister (draw refunded)

82%

Kozuv Gevgelija (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pelister at home — creates 2.34, concedes 0.50 · 38 matches

Kozuv Gevgelija away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.30 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pelister attack 2.34 + Kozuv Gevgelija defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.82

Kozuv Gevgelija attack 0.89 + Pelister defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Pelister scores more

64%

level

22%

Kozuv Gevgelija scores more

14%

Pelister at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Pelister will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff