Kozuv Gevgelija 2–4 Pelister: Result & Stats

Kozuv Gevgelija

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Pelister

8/20/2022

Second League · Round 1Stadion FK Kožuf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Kozuv Gevgelija36%

×Draw26%

Pelister38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kozuv GevgelijaExpected goals in this matchPelister

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.38

Kozuv Gevgelija

1.35

Pelister

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 38 away

1.71

creates per match

1.68

1.07

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Kozuv Gevgelija

1.71

Pelister

1.68

allows per match

Kozuv Gevgelija

1.07

Pelister

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kozuv Gevgelija+0.00on par

Pelister+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kozuv Gevgelija ↓

Pelister →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Kozuv Gevgelija or draw

62%

Kozuv Gevgelija or Pelister

74%

Draw or Pelister

64%

Winning margin

Kozuv Gevgelija wins by 2+

16%

Pelister wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Kozuv Gevgelija 1+ goals

74%

Kozuv Gevgelija 2+ goals

39%

Kozuv Gevgelija 3+ goals

15%

Pelister 1+ goals

75%

Pelister 2+ goals

40%

Pelister 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Kozuv Gevgelija (draw refunded)

49%

Pelister (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kozuv Gevgelija at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.07 · 83 matches

Pelister away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kozuv Gevgelija attack 1.71 + Pelister defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.35

Pelister attack 1.68 + Kozuv Gevgelija defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kozuv Gevgelija scores more

36%

level

26%

Pelister scores more

38%

Pelister at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Pelister will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff