Pelister 2–1 Korab Debar: Result & Stats

Pelister

FT

2 – 1

Korab Debar

10/13/2018

Second League · West - 9Stadion pod Tumbe Kafe (Bitola)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Pelister67%

×Draw21%

Korab Debar13%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PelisterExpected goals in this matchKorab Debar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

0.71

Pelister

1.95

Korab Debar

0.71

Pelister creates 175% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 23 away

2.26

creates per match

0.91

0.50

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Pelister

2.26

Korab Debar

0.91

allows per match

Pelister

0.50

Korab Debar

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pelister+0.00on par

Korab Debar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pelister ↓

Korab Debar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Pelister or draw

87%

Pelister or Korab Debar

79%

Draw or Korab Debar

33%

Winning margin

Pelister wins by 2+

41%

Korab Debar wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Pelister 1+ goals

86%

Pelister 2+ goals

58%

Pelister 3+ goals

31%

Korab Debar 1+ goals

51%

Korab Debar 2+ goals

16%

Korab Debar 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Pelister (draw refunded)

84%

Korab Debar (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pelister at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.50 · 42 matches

Korab Debar away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.65 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pelister attack 2.26 + Korab Debar defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.95

Korab Debar attack 0.91 + Pelister defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Pelister scores more

67%

level

21%

Korab Debar scores more

13%

Pelister at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Pelister will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff