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Korab Debar vs Pelister — Second League 2019

Korab Debar
Korab Debar
FT
1 – 2
Pelister
Pelister
9/28/2019Second LeagueSecond League · West - 6Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Korab Debar40%
×Draw27%
Pelister33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korab Debar
1.32
Pelister
1.19

Korab Debar creates 11% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 40 away

creates per match

Korab Debar
1.65
Pelister
1.63

allows per match

Korab Debar
0.74
Pelister
1.00

finishing

Korab Debar+0.00on par
Pelister+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korab Debar ↓

Pelister →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Korab Debar or draw
67%
Korab Debar or Pelister
73%
Draw or Pelister
60%

Winning margin

Korab Debar wins by 2+
18%
Pelister wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Korab Debar 1+ goals
73%
Korab Debar 2+ goals
38%
Korab Debar 3+ goals
15%
Pelister 1+ goals
70%
Pelister 2+ goals
33%
Pelister 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Korab Debar (draw refunded)
54%
Pelister (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korab Debar at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.74 · 23 matches

Pelister away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.00 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korab Debar attack 1.65 + Pelister defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.32

Pelister attack 1.63 + Korab Debar defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Korab Debar scores more
40%
level
27%
Pelister scores more
33%

Korab Debar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Korab Debar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Korab Debar 1–2 Pelister

Pelister beat Korab Debar 2-1 in Second League on September 28, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Debar.