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Pelister vs KF Gostivari — First League 2019

Pelister
Pelister
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
KF Gostivari
KF Gostivari
8/11/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 1Stadion Petar Miloševski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Pelister38%
×Draw31%
KF Gostivari31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pelister
1.05
KF Gostivari
0.91

Pelister creates 15% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 31 away

creates per match

Pelister
0.98
KF Gostivari
0.87

allows per match

Pelister
0.95
KF Gostivari
1.13

finishing

Pelister+0.00on par
KF Gostivari+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pelister ↓

KF Gostivari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Pelister or draw
69%
Pelister or KF Gostivari
69%
Draw or KF Gostivari
62%

Winning margin

Pelister wins by 2+
15%
KF Gostivari wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pelister 1+ goals
65%
Pelister 2+ goals
28%
Pelister 3+ goals
9%
KF Gostivari 1+ goals
60%
KF Gostivari 2+ goals
23%
KF Gostivari 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Pelister (draw refunded)
55%
KF Gostivari (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pelister at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.95 · 63 matches

KF Gostivari away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.13 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pelister attack 0.98 + KF Gostivari defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.05

KF Gostivari attack 0.87 + Pelister defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Pelister scores more
38%
level
31%
KF Gostivari scores more
31%

Pelister at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Pelister will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Pelister 1–1 KF Gostivari

Pelister and KF Gostivari drew 1-1 in First League on August 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Petar Miloševski in Bitola.