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KF Gostivari vs Pelister — Cup 2020

KF Gostivari
KF Gostivari
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Pelister
Pelister
9/14/2022CupCup · 1st RoundIgralište Golema Rečica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

KF Gostivari23%
×Draw23%
Pelister54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KF Gostivari
1.11
Pelister
1.81

Pelister creates 63% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

KF Gostivari
1.80
Pelister
2.43

allows per match

KF Gostivari
1.20
Pelister
0.43

finishing

KF Gostivari+0.00on par
Pelister+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KF Gostivari ↓

Pelister →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

KF Gostivari or draw
46%
KF Gostivari or Pelister
77%
Draw or Pelister
77%

Winning margin

KF Gostivari wins by 2+
9%
Pelister wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

KF Gostivari 1+ goals
67%
KF Gostivari 2+ goals
30%
KF Gostivari 3+ goals
10%
Pelister 1+ goals
84%
Pelister 2+ goals
54%
Pelister 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

KF Gostivari (draw refunded)
30%
Pelister (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KF Gostivari at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Pelister away — creates 2.43, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KF Gostivari attack 1.80 + Pelister defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 1.11

Pelister attack 2.43 + KF Gostivari defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

KF Gostivari scores more
23%
level
23%
Pelister scores more
54%

Pelister at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Pelister will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: KF Gostivari 0–1 Pelister

Pelister beat KF Gostivari 1-0 in Cup on September 14, 2022.

The match was played at Igralište Golema Rečica in Tetovo.