Pelikan Łowicz 2–1 Olimpia Zambrów: Result & Stats

Pelikan Łowicz

FT

2 – 1

Olimpia Zambrów

4/2/2023

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Stadion Pelikan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Pelikan Łowicz47%

×Draw25%

Olimpia Zambrów29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pelikan ŁowiczExpected goals in this matchOlimpia Zambrów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.20

Pelikan Łowicz

1.60

Olimpia Zambrów

1.20

Pelikan Łowicz creates 33% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 49 away

1.62

creates per match

1.14

1.26

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Pelikan Łowicz

1.62

Olimpia Zambrów

1.14

allows per match

Pelikan Łowicz

1.26

Olimpia Zambrów

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pelikan Łowicz+0.00on par

Olimpia Zambrów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pelikan Łowicz ↓

Olimpia Zambrów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Pelikan Łowicz or draw

71%

Pelikan Łowicz or Olimpia Zambrów

75%

Draw or Olimpia Zambrów

53%

Winning margin

Pelikan Łowicz wins by 2+

24%

Olimpia Zambrów wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Pelikan Łowicz 1+ goals

80%

Pelikan Łowicz 2+ goals

47%

Pelikan Łowicz 3+ goals

22%

Olimpia Zambrów 1+ goals

70%

Olimpia Zambrów 2+ goals

34%

Olimpia Zambrów 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Pelikan Łowicz (draw refunded)

62%

Olimpia Zambrów (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pelikan Łowicz at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.26 · 86 matches

Olimpia Zambrów away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.59 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pelikan Łowicz attack 1.62 + Olimpia Zambrów defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.60

Olimpia Zambrów attack 1.14 + Pelikan Łowicz defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pelikan Łowicz scores more

47%

level

25%

Olimpia Zambrów scores more

29%

Pelikan Łowicz at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pelikan Łowicz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff