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Olimpia Zambrów vs Pelikan Łowicz — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Olimpia Zambrów
Olimpia Zambrów
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Pelikan Łowicz
Pelikan Łowicz
3/2/2024III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Olimpia Zambrów41%
×Draw24%
Pelikan Łowicz35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpia Zambrów
1.60
Pelikan Łowicz
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 86 away

creates per match

Olimpia Zambrów
1.64
Pelikan Łowicz
1.23

allows per match

Olimpia Zambrów
1.74
Pelikan Łowicz
1.56

finishing

Olimpia Zambrów+0.00on par
Pelikan Łowicz+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Zambrów ↓

Pelikan Łowicz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Olimpia Zambrów or draw
65%
Olimpia Zambrów or Pelikan Łowicz
76%
Draw or Pelikan Łowicz
59%

Winning margin

Olimpia Zambrów wins by 2+
20%
Pelikan Łowicz wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Olimpia Zambrów 1+ goals
80%
Olimpia Zambrów 2+ goals
47%
Olimpia Zambrów 3+ goals
22%
Pelikan Łowicz 1+ goals
77%
Pelikan Łowicz 2+ goals
43%
Pelikan Łowicz 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Zambrów (draw refunded)
53%
Pelikan Łowicz (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Zambrów at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.74 · 53 matches

Pelikan Łowicz away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.56 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Zambrów attack 1.64 + Pelikan Łowicz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.60

Pelikan Łowicz attack 1.23 + Olimpia Zambrów defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Olimpia Zambrów scores more
41%
level
24%
Pelikan Łowicz scores more
35%

Olimpia Zambrów at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Olimpia Zambrów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Olimpia Zambrów 1–1 Pelikan Łowicz

Olimpia Zambrów and Pelikan Łowicz drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Zambrów.