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Pelikan Łowicz vs Mamry Giżycko — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Pelikan Łowicz
Pelikan Łowicz
FT
1 – 1
Mamry Giżycko
Mamry Giżycko
K. Lojszczyk 61' (pen)
K. Wiszniewski 23'
9/8/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Stadion im. 10 Pułku Piechoty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Pelikan Łowicz51%
×Draw23%
Mamry Giżycko26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pelikan Łowicz
1.84
Mamry Giżycko
1.24

Pelikan Łowicz creates 48% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 18 away

creates per match

Pelikan Łowicz
1.62
Mamry Giżycko
1.22

allows per match

Pelikan Łowicz
1.26
Mamry Giżycko
2.06

finishing

Pelikan Łowicz+0.00on par
Mamry Giżycko+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pelikan Łowicz ↓

Mamry Giżycko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Pelikan Łowicz or draw
74%
Pelikan Łowicz or Mamry Giżycko
77%
Draw or Mamry Giżycko
49%

Winning margin

Pelikan Łowicz wins by 2+
29%
Mamry Giżycko wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pelikan Łowicz 1+ goals
84%
Pelikan Łowicz 2+ goals
55%
Pelikan Łowicz 3+ goals
28%
Mamry Giżycko 1+ goals
71%
Mamry Giżycko 2+ goals
35%
Mamry Giżycko 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Pelikan Łowicz (draw refunded)
67%
Mamry Giżycko (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pelikan Łowicz at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.26 · 86 matches

Mamry Giżycko away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pelikan Łowicz attack 1.62 + Mamry Giżycko defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.84

Mamry Giżycko attack 1.22 + Pelikan Łowicz defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Pelikan Łowicz scores more
51%
level
23%
Mamry Giżycko scores more
26%

Pelikan Łowicz at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Pelikan Łowicz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
K. Wiszniewski
61'
K. LojszczykPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Pelikan Łowicz 1–1 Mamry Giżycko

Pelikan Łowicz and Mamry Giżycko drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on September 8, 2021.

Goals: K. Wiszniewski (23'), K. Lojszczyk (61' pen).

The match was played at Stadion im. 10 Pułku Piechoty in Łowicz.