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Mamry Giżycko vs Pelikan Łowicz — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Mamry Giżycko
Mamry Giżycko
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pelikan Łowicz
Pelikan Łowicz
4/16/2022III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26Stadion Miejski MOSIR Giżycko

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Mamry Giżycko35%
×Draw25%
Pelikan Łowicz40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mamry Giżycko
1.36
Pelikan Łowicz
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 86 away

creates per match

Mamry Giżycko
1.17
Pelikan Łowicz
1.23

allows per match

Mamry Giżycko
1.72
Pelikan Łowicz
1.56

finishing

Mamry Giżycko+0.00on par
Pelikan Łowicz+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamry Giżycko ↓

Pelikan Łowicz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Mamry Giżycko or draw
60%
Mamry Giżycko or Pelikan Łowicz
75%
Draw or Pelikan Łowicz
65%

Winning margin

Mamry Giżycko wins by 2+
16%
Pelikan Łowicz wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Mamry Giżycko 1+ goals
74%
Mamry Giżycko 2+ goals
39%
Mamry Giżycko 3+ goals
16%
Pelikan Łowicz 1+ goals
77%
Pelikan Łowicz 2+ goals
43%
Pelikan Łowicz 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Mamry Giżycko (draw refunded)
46%
Pelikan Łowicz (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamry Giżycko at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

Pelikan Łowicz away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.56 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamry Giżycko attack 1.17 + Pelikan Łowicz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.36

Pelikan Łowicz attack 1.23 + Mamry Giżycko defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mamry Giżycko scores more
35%
level
25%
Pelikan Łowicz scores more
40%

Pelikan Łowicz at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pelikan Łowicz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mamry Giżycko vs Pelikan Łowicz

Mamry Giżycko beat Pelikan Łowicz 1-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski MOSIR Giżycko in Giżycko.