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Pelikan Łowicz vs Legionovia Legionowo — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Pelikan Łowicz
Pelikan Łowicz
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
6/2/2024III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 33Stadion Pelikan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Pelikan Łowicz41%
×Draw24%
Legionovia Legionowo35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pelikan Łowicz
1.63
Legionovia Legionowo
1.48

Pelikan Łowicz creates 10% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 70 away

creates per match

Pelikan Łowicz
1.62
Legionovia Legionowo
1.69

allows per match

Pelikan Łowicz
1.26
Legionovia Legionowo
1.63

finishing

Pelikan Łowicz+0.00on par
Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pelikan Łowicz ↓

Legionovia Legionowo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Pelikan Łowicz or draw
65%
Pelikan Łowicz or Legionovia Legionowo
76%
Draw or Legionovia Legionowo
59%

Winning margin

Pelikan Łowicz wins by 2+
21%
Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Pelikan Łowicz 1+ goals
80%
Pelikan Łowicz 2+ goals
48%
Pelikan Łowicz 3+ goals
22%
Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
77%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
43%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Pelikan Łowicz (draw refunded)
54%
Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pelikan Łowicz at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.26 · 86 matches

Legionovia Legionowo away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pelikan Łowicz attack 1.62 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.63

Legionovia Legionowo attack 1.69 + Pelikan Łowicz defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pelikan Łowicz scores more
41%
level
24%
Legionovia Legionowo scores more
35%

Pelikan Łowicz at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pelikan Łowicz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pelikan Łowicz vs Legionovia Legionowo

Pelikan Łowicz beat Legionovia Legionowo 2-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on June 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Pelikan in Łowicz.