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Legionovia Legionowo vs Pelikan Łowicz — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Pelikan Łowicz
Pelikan Łowicz
5/11/2022III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 31Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Legionovia Legionowo50%
×Draw23%
Pelikan Łowicz27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legionovia Legionowo
1.78
Pelikan Łowicz
1.25

Legionovia Legionowo creates 42% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 86 away

creates per match

Legionovia Legionowo
2.00
Pelikan Łowicz
1.23

allows per match

Legionovia Legionowo
1.26
Pelikan Łowicz
1.56

finishing

Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par
Pelikan Łowicz+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legionovia Legionowo ↓

Pelikan Łowicz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Legionovia Legionowo or draw
73%
Legionovia Legionowo or Pelikan Łowicz
77%
Draw or Pelikan Łowicz
50%

Winning margin

Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
27%
Pelikan Łowicz wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
83%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
53%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
26%
Pelikan Łowicz 1+ goals
71%
Pelikan Łowicz 2+ goals
36%
Pelikan Łowicz 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
65%
Pelikan Łowicz (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legionovia Legionowo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.26 · 69 matches

Pelikan Łowicz away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.56 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legionovia Legionowo attack 2.00 + Pelikan Łowicz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.78

Pelikan Łowicz attack 1.23 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Legionovia Legionowo scores more
50%
level
23%
Pelikan Łowicz scores more
27%

Legionovia Legionowo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Legionovia Legionowo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Legionovia Legionowo 3–1 Pelikan Łowicz

Legionovia Legionowo beat Pelikan Łowicz 3-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on May 11, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Legionowie im. ks. płk. Jana Mrugacza in Legionowo.