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Pelikan Łowicz vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Pelikan Łowicz
Pelikan Łowicz
FT
0 – 0
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
3/17/2024III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 21Stadion Pelikan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Pelikan Łowicz45%
×Draw23%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pelikan Łowicz
1.77
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
1.44

Pelikan Łowicz creates 23% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 102 away

creates per match

Pelikan Łowicz
1.62
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
1.63

allows per match

Pelikan Łowicz
1.26
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
1.91

finishing

Pelikan Łowicz+0.00on par
Lechia T. Mazowiecki+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pelikan Łowicz ↓

Lechia T. Mazowiecki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Pelikan Łowicz or draw
69%
Pelikan Łowicz or Lechia T. Mazowiecki
77%
Draw or Lechia T. Mazowiecki
55%

Winning margin

Pelikan Łowicz wins by 2+
24%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Pelikan Łowicz 1+ goals
83%
Pelikan Łowicz 2+ goals
53%
Pelikan Łowicz 3+ goals
26%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki 1+ goals
76%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki 2+ goals
42%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Pelikan Łowicz (draw refunded)
59%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pelikan Łowicz at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.26 · 86 matches

Lechia T. Mazowiecki away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.91 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pelikan Łowicz attack 1.62 + Lechia T. Mazowiecki defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.77

Lechia T. Mazowiecki attack 1.63 + Pelikan Łowicz defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pelikan Łowicz scores more
45%
level
23%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki scores more
31%

Pelikan Łowicz at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pelikan Łowicz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pelikan Łowicz vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki

Pelikan Łowicz and Lechia T. Mazowiecki drew 0-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Pelikan in Łowicz.