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Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Pelikan Łowicz — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Lechia T. Mazowiecki
Lechia T. Mazowiecki
FT
0 – 2
Pelikan Łowicz
Pelikan Łowicz
5/24/2023III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 30Stadion im. Braci Gadajów

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Lechia T. Mazowiecki47%
×Draw24%
Pelikan Łowicz29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lechia T. Mazowiecki
1.67
Pelikan Łowicz
1.25

Lechia T. Mazowiecki creates 34% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 86 away

creates per match

Lechia T. Mazowiecki
1.77
Pelikan Łowicz
1.23

allows per match

Lechia T. Mazowiecki
1.26
Pelikan Łowicz
1.56

finishing

Lechia T. Mazowiecki+0.00on par
Pelikan Łowicz+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia T. Mazowiecki ↓

Pelikan Łowicz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lechia T. Mazowiecki or draw
71%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki or Pelikan Łowicz
76%
Draw or Pelikan Łowicz
53%

Winning margin

Lechia T. Mazowiecki wins by 2+
25%
Pelikan Łowicz wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lechia T. Mazowiecki 1+ goals
81%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki 2+ goals
50%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki 3+ goals
23%
Pelikan Łowicz 1+ goals
71%
Pelikan Łowicz 2+ goals
36%
Pelikan Łowicz 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Lechia T. Mazowiecki (draw refunded)
62%
Pelikan Łowicz (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia T. Mazowiecki at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.26 · 104 matches

Pelikan Łowicz away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.56 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia T. Mazowiecki attack 1.77 + Pelikan Łowicz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.67

Pelikan Łowicz attack 1.23 + Lechia T. Mazowiecki defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lechia T. Mazowiecki scores more
47%
level
24%
Pelikan Łowicz scores more
29%

Lechia T. Mazowiecki at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lechia T. Mazowiecki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Lechia T. Mazowiecki 0–2 Pelikan Łowicz

Pelikan Łowicz beat Lechia T. Mazowiecki 2-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on May 24, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion im. Braci Gadajów in Tomaszów Mazowiecki.