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Pelikan Łowicz vs Huragan Morąg — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Pelikan Łowicz
Pelikan Łowicz
FT
1 – 1
Huragan Morąg
Huragan Morąg
4/10/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 23Stadion Pelikan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Pelikan Łowicz53%
×Draw22%
Huragan Morąg25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pelikan Łowicz
1.92
Huragan Morąg
1.24

Pelikan Łowicz creates 55% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 18 away

creates per match

Pelikan Łowicz
1.62
Huragan Morąg
1.22

allows per match

Pelikan Łowicz
1.26
Huragan Morąg
2.22

finishing

Pelikan Łowicz+0.00on par
Huragan Morąg+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pelikan Łowicz ↓

Huragan Morąg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Pelikan Łowicz or draw
75%
Pelikan Łowicz or Huragan Morąg
78%
Draw or Huragan Morąg
47%

Winning margin

Pelikan Łowicz wins by 2+
30%
Huragan Morąg wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Pelikan Łowicz 1+ goals
85%
Pelikan Łowicz 2+ goals
57%
Pelikan Łowicz 3+ goals
30%
Huragan Morąg 1+ goals
71%
Huragan Morąg 2+ goals
35%
Huragan Morąg 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Pelikan Łowicz (draw refunded)
68%
Huragan Morąg (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pelikan Łowicz at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.26 · 86 matches

Huragan Morąg away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pelikan Łowicz attack 1.62 + Huragan Morąg defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.92

Huragan Morąg attack 1.22 + Pelikan Łowicz defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Pelikan Łowicz scores more
53%
level
22%
Huragan Morąg scores more
25%

Pelikan Łowicz at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Pelikan Łowicz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Pelikan Łowicz 1–1 Huragan Morąg

Pelikan Łowicz and Huragan Morąg drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on April 10, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Pelikan in Łowicz.