Huragan Morąg 1–2 Pelikan Łowicz: Result & Stats

Huragan Morąg

FT

1 – 2

Pelikan Łowicz

9/12/2020

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Stadion Huragan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Huragan Morąg29%

×Draw24%

Pelikan Łowicz47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Huragan MorągExpected goals in this matchPelikan Łowicz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.74

Huragan Morąg

1.31

Pelikan Łowicz

1.74

Pelikan Łowicz creates 33% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 86 away

1.06

creates per match

1.23

2.25

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Huragan Morąg

1.06

Pelikan Łowicz

1.23

allows per match

Huragan Morąg

2.25

Pelikan Łowicz

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huragan Morąg+0.00on par

Pelikan Łowicz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huragan Morąg ↓

Pelikan Łowicz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Huragan Morąg or draw

53%

Huragan Morąg or Pelikan Łowicz

76%

Draw or Pelikan Łowicz

71%

Winning margin

Huragan Morąg wins by 2+

12%

Pelikan Łowicz wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Huragan Morąg 1+ goals

73%

Huragan Morąg 2+ goals

38%

Huragan Morąg 3+ goals

14%

Pelikan Łowicz 1+ goals

82%

Pelikan Łowicz 2+ goals

52%

Pelikan Łowicz 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Huragan Morąg (draw refunded)

38%

Pelikan Łowicz (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huragan Morąg at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.25 · 16 matches

Pelikan Łowicz away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.56 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huragan Morąg attack 1.06 + Pelikan Łowicz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

Pelikan Łowicz attack 1.23 + Huragan Morąg defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Huragan Morąg scores more

29%

level

24%

Pelikan Łowicz scores more

47%

Pelikan Łowicz at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pelikan Łowicz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff