Pelikan Łowicz 0–0 Broń Radom: Result & Stats

Pelikan Łowicz

FT

0 – 0

Broń Radom

8/25/2024

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Stadion Pelikan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Pelikan Łowicz50%

×Draw24%

Broń Radom26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pelikan ŁowiczExpected goals in this matchBroń Radom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.21

Pelikan Łowicz

1.75

Broń Radom

1.21

Pelikan Łowicz creates 45% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 103 away

1.62

creates per match

1.17

1.26

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Pelikan Łowicz

1.62

Broń Radom

1.17

allows per match

Pelikan Łowicz

1.26

Broń Radom

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pelikan Łowicz+0.00on par

Broń Radom+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pelikan Łowicz ↓

Broń Radom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Pelikan Łowicz or draw

74%

Pelikan Łowicz or Broń Radom

76%

Draw or Broń Radom

50%

Winning margin

Pelikan Łowicz wins by 2+

27%

Broń Radom wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Pelikan Łowicz 1+ goals

83%

Pelikan Łowicz 2+ goals

52%

Pelikan Łowicz 3+ goals

25%

Broń Radom 1+ goals

70%

Broń Radom 2+ goals

34%

Broń Radom 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Pelikan Łowicz (draw refunded)

65%

Broń Radom (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pelikan Łowicz at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.26 · 86 matches

Broń Radom away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.87 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pelikan Łowicz attack 1.62 + Broń Radom defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.75

Broń Radom attack 1.17 + Pelikan Łowicz defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Pelikan Łowicz scores more

50%

level

24%

Broń Radom scores more

26%

Pelikan Łowicz at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Pelikan Łowicz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff