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Broń Radom vs Pelikan Łowicz — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Broń Radom
Broń Radom
FT
0 – 1
Pelikan Łowicz
Pelikan Łowicz
3/22/2024III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Broń Radom44%
×Draw25%
Pelikan Łowicz31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Broń Radom
1.52
Pelikan Łowicz
1.24

Broń Radom creates 23% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 86 away

creates per match

Broń Radom
1.48
Pelikan Łowicz
1.23

allows per match

Broń Radom
1.25
Pelikan Łowicz
1.56

finishing

Broń Radom+0.00on par
Pelikan Łowicz+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Broń Radom ↓

Pelikan Łowicz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Broń Radom or draw
69%
Broń Radom or Pelikan Łowicz
75%
Draw or Pelikan Łowicz
56%

Winning margin

Broń Radom wins by 2+
22%
Pelikan Łowicz wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Broń Radom 1+ goals
78%
Broń Radom 2+ goals
45%
Broń Radom 3+ goals
20%
Pelikan Łowicz 1+ goals
71%
Pelikan Łowicz 2+ goals
35%
Pelikan Łowicz 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Broń Radom (draw refunded)
58%
Pelikan Łowicz (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Broń Radom at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.25 · 103 matches

Pelikan Łowicz away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.56 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Broń Radom attack 1.48 + Pelikan Łowicz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.52

Pelikan Łowicz attack 1.23 + Broń Radom defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Broń Radom scores more
44%
level
25%
Pelikan Łowicz scores more
31%

Broń Radom at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Broń Radom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Broń Radom 0 – 1 Pelikan Łowicz

Pelikan Łowicz beat Broń Radom 1-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on March 22, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Radom.