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Pelikan Łowicz vs Bełchatów — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Pelikan Łowicz
Pelikan Łowicz
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Bełchatów
Bełchatów
10/20/2024III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Stadion Pelikan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Pelikan Łowicz49%
×Draw23%
Bełchatów28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pelikan Łowicz
1.80
Bełchatów
1.31

Pelikan Łowicz creates 37% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 51 away

creates per match

Pelikan Łowicz
1.62
Bełchatów
1.37

allows per match

Pelikan Łowicz
1.26
Bełchatów
1.98

finishing

Pelikan Łowicz+0.00on par
Bełchatów+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pelikan Łowicz ↓

Bełchatów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Pelikan Łowicz or draw
72%
Pelikan Łowicz or Bełchatów
77%
Draw or Bełchatów
51%

Winning margin

Pelikan Łowicz wins by 2+
27%
Bełchatów wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Pelikan Łowicz 1+ goals
83%
Pelikan Łowicz 2+ goals
54%
Pelikan Łowicz 3+ goals
27%
Bełchatów 1+ goals
73%
Bełchatów 2+ goals
38%
Bełchatów 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Pelikan Łowicz (draw refunded)
64%
Bełchatów (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pelikan Łowicz at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.26 · 86 matches

Bełchatów away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.98 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pelikan Łowicz attack 1.62 + Bełchatów defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.80

Bełchatów attack 1.37 + Pelikan Łowicz defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Pelikan Łowicz scores more
49%
level
23%
Bełchatów scores more
28%

Pelikan Łowicz at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Pelikan Łowicz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Pelikan Łowicz 0–3 Bełchatów

Bełchatów beat Pelikan Łowicz 3-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Pelikan in Łowicz.