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Bełchatów vs Pelikan Łowicz — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Bełchatów
Bełchatów
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pelikan Łowicz
Pelikan Łowicz
8/5/2023III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Stadion GKS-u

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Bełchatów46%
×Draw24%
Pelikan Łowicz31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bełchatów
1.69
Pelikan Łowicz
1.34

Bełchatów creates 26% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 86 away

creates per match

Bełchatów
1.82
Pelikan Łowicz
1.23

allows per match

Bełchatów
1.45
Pelikan Łowicz
1.56

finishing

Bełchatów+0.00on par
Pelikan Łowicz+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bełchatów ↓

Pelikan Łowicz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Bełchatów or draw
69%
Bełchatów or Pelikan Łowicz
76%
Draw or Pelikan Łowicz
54%

Winning margin

Bełchatów wins by 2+
24%
Pelikan Łowicz wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bełchatów 1+ goals
82%
Bełchatów 2+ goals
50%
Bełchatów 3+ goals
24%
Pelikan Łowicz 1+ goals
74%
Pelikan Łowicz 2+ goals
39%
Pelikan Łowicz 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Bełchatów (draw refunded)
60%
Pelikan Łowicz (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bełchatów at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.45 · 51 matches

Pelikan Łowicz away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.56 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bełchatów attack 1.82 + Pelikan Łowicz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.69

Pelikan Łowicz attack 1.23 + Bełchatów defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bełchatów scores more
46%
level
24%
Pelikan Łowicz scores more
31%

Bełchatów at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bełchatów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Bełchatów 1–0 Pelikan Łowicz

Bełchatów beat Pelikan Łowicz 1-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion GKS-u in Bełchatów.