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Pélican vs FC 105 — Championnat D1 2022

Pélican
Pélican
CANC
15:00
FC 105
FC 105
4/29/2023Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 15Stade Jean Koumou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Pélican38%
×Draw28%
FC 10534%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pélican
1.22
FC 105
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

creates per match

Pélican
1.56
FC 105
1.16

allows per match

Pélican
1.13
FC 105
0.88

finishing

Pélican+0.00on par
FC 105+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pélican ↓

FC 105 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Pélican or draw
66%
Pélican or FC 105
72%
Draw or FC 105
62%

Winning margin

Pélican wins by 2+
16%
FC 105 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Pélican 1+ goals
70%
Pélican 2+ goals
34%
Pélican 3+ goals
12%
FC 105 1+ goals
68%
FC 105 2+ goals
32%
FC 105 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pélican (draw refunded)
52%
FC 105 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pélican at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.13 · 32 matches

FC 105 away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.88 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pélican attack 1.56 + FC 105 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.22

FC 105 attack 1.16 + Pélican defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Pélican scores more
38%
level
28%
FC 105 scores more
34%

Pélican at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Pélican will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pélican face FC 105 (Championnat D1)

Championnat D1 returns with Pélican hosting FC 105. Match starts April 29, 2023. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Pélican host FC 105 at Stade Jean Koumou.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.