FC 105 2–2 Pélican: Result & Stats | Championnat D1

FC 105

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Pélican

5/31/2025

Championnat D1 · Round 26Stade Idriss Ngari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

FC 10538%

×Draw26%

Pélican36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC 105Expected goals in this matchPélican

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.36

FC 105

1.40

Pélican

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 31 away

1.41

creates per match

1.29

1.44

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

FC 105

1.41

Pélican

1.29

allows per match

FC 105

1.44

Pélican

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC 105+0.00on par

Pélican+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC 105 ↓

Pélican →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

FC 105 or draw

64%

FC 105 or Pélican

74%

Draw or Pélican

62%

Winning margin

FC 105 wins by 2+

18%

Pélican wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

FC 105 1+ goals

75%

FC 105 2+ goals

41%

FC 105 3+ goals

17%

Pélican 1+ goals

74%

Pélican 2+ goals

39%

Pélican 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

FC 105 (draw refunded)

51%

Pélican (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC 105 at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

Pélican away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC 105 attack 1.41 + Pélican defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.40

Pélican attack 1.29 + FC 105 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC 105 scores more

38%

level

26%

Pélican scores more

36%

FC 105 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC 105 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff