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PeKa vs LaPa — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2018

PeKa
PeKa
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
LaPa
LaPa
5/14/2022Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Group A - 3Karhulan Keskuskenttä tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

PeKa79%
×Draw13%
LaPa8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PeKa
3.09
LaPa
0.93

PeKa creates 232% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 11 away

creates per match

PeKa
1.45
LaPa
0.45

allows per match

PeKa
1.41
LaPa
4.73

finishing

PeKa+0.00on par
LaPa+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PeKa ↓

LaPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

PeKa or draw
92%
PeKa or LaPa
87%
Draw or LaPa
21%

Winning margin

PeKa wins by 2+
60%
LaPa wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

PeKa 1+ goals
95%
PeKa 2+ goals
81%
PeKa 3+ goals
58%
LaPa 1+ goals
61%
LaPa 2+ goals
24%
LaPa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

PeKa (draw refunded)
91%
LaPa (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PeKa at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.41 · 22 matches

LaPa away — creates 0.45, concedes 4.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PeKa attack 1.45 + LaPa defence 4.73 → ÷2 → 3.09

LaPa attack 0.45 + PeKa defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

PeKa scores more
79%
level
13%
LaPa scores more
8%

PeKa at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "PeKa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PeKa vs LaPa

PeKa beat LaPa 3-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Karhulan Keskuskenttä tekonurmi in Kotka.