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LaPa vs PeKa — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2018

LaPa
LaPa
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
PeKa
PeKa
7/30/2022Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Group A - 9Kimpisen Urheilupuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

LaPa34%
×Draw20%
PeKa46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LaPa
1.96
PeKa
2.31

PeKa creates 18% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 22 away

creates per match

LaPa
0.91
PeKa
1.27

allows per match

LaPa
3.36
PeKa
3.00

finishing

LaPa+0.00on par
PeKa+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LaPa ↓

PeKa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

LaPa or draw
54%
LaPa or PeKa
80%
Draw or PeKa
66%

Winning margin

LaPa wins by 2+
18%
PeKa wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

LaPa 1+ goals
86%
LaPa 2+ goals
58%
LaPa 3+ goals
31%
PeKa 1+ goals
90%
PeKa 2+ goals
67%
PeKa 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

LaPa (draw refunded)
42%
PeKa (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LaPa at home — creates 0.91, concedes 3.36 · 11 matches

PeKa away — creates 1.27, concedes 3.00 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LaPa attack 0.91 + PeKa defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.96

PeKa attack 1.27 + LaPa defence 3.36 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

LaPa scores more
34%
level
20%
PeKa scores more
46%

PeKa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "PeKa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: LaPa vs PeKa

PeKa beat LaPa 4-2 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on July 30, 2022.

The match was played at Kimpisen Urheilupuisto in Lappeenranta.