Pehchevo 3–0 Kozuv Gevgelija: Result & Stats

Pehchevo

FT

3 – 0

Kozuv Gevgelija

10/9/2022

Second League · Round 7Stadion Boris Trajkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Pehchevo48%

×Draw27%

Kozuv Gevgelija26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PehchevoExpected goals in this matchKozuv Gevgelija

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.99

Pehchevo

1.45

Kozuv Gevgelija

0.99

Pehchevo creates 46% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 81 away

1.59

creates per match

0.89

1.08

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Pehchevo

1.59

Kozuv Gevgelija

0.89

allows per match

Pehchevo

1.08

Kozuv Gevgelija

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pehchevo+0.00on par

Kozuv Gevgelija+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pehchevo ↓

Kozuv Gevgelija →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Pehchevo or draw

74%

Pehchevo or Kozuv Gevgelija

73%

Draw or Kozuv Gevgelija

52%

Winning margin

Pehchevo wins by 2+

24%

Kozuv Gevgelija wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Pehchevo 1+ goals

77%

Pehchevo 2+ goals

42%

Pehchevo 3+ goals

18%

Kozuv Gevgelija 1+ goals

63%

Kozuv Gevgelija 2+ goals

26%

Kozuv Gevgelija 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Pehchevo (draw refunded)

65%

Kozuv Gevgelija (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pehchevo at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.08 · 37 matches

Kozuv Gevgelija away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.30 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pehchevo attack 1.59 + Kozuv Gevgelija defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.45

Kozuv Gevgelija attack 0.89 + Pehchevo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Pehchevo scores more

48%

level

27%

Kozuv Gevgelija scores more

26%

Pehchevo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Pehchevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff