Kozuv Gevgelija 2–1 Pehchevo: Result & Stats

Kozuv Gevgelija

FT

2 – 1

Pehchevo

4/1/2023

Second League · Round 22Stadion FK Kožuf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Kozuv Gevgelija47%

×Draw26%

Pehchevo27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kozuv GevgelijaExpected goals in this matchPehchevo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.09

Kozuv Gevgelija

1.51

Pehchevo

1.09

Kozuv Gevgelija creates 39% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 36 away

1.71

creates per match

1.11

1.07

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Kozuv Gevgelija

1.71

Pehchevo

1.11

allows per match

Kozuv Gevgelija

1.07

Pehchevo

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kozuv Gevgelija+0.00on par

Pehchevo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kozuv Gevgelija ↓

Pehchevo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Kozuv Gevgelija or draw

73%

Kozuv Gevgelija or Pehchevo

74%

Draw or Pehchevo

53%

Winning margin

Kozuv Gevgelija wins by 2+

23%

Pehchevo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Kozuv Gevgelija 1+ goals

78%

Kozuv Gevgelija 2+ goals

44%

Kozuv Gevgelija 3+ goals

19%

Pehchevo 1+ goals

66%

Pehchevo 2+ goals

30%

Pehchevo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Kozuv Gevgelija (draw refunded)

63%

Pehchevo (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kozuv Gevgelija at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.07 · 83 matches

Pehchevo away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.31 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kozuv Gevgelija attack 1.71 + Pehchevo defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.51

Pehchevo attack 1.11 + Kozuv Gevgelija defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kozuv Gevgelija scores more

47%

level

26%

Pehchevo scores more

27%

Kozuv Gevgelija at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kozuv Gevgelija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff