PEC Zwolle W 4–0 NAC Breda W: Result & Stats

PEC Zwolle W

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

NAC Breda W

J. Roosjen 80'

H. Huizenga 65'

I. Zijp 62', 14'

11/2/2025

Eredivisie Women · Round 6Sportpark Ceintuurbaan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

PEC Zwolle W68%

×Draw16%

NAC Breda W15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PEC Zwolle WExpected goals in this matchNAC Breda W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.77

1.26

PEC Zwolle W

2.77

NAC Breda W

1.26

PEC Zwolle W creates 120% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 11 away

1.63

creates per match

0.55

1.97

allows per match

3.91

creates per match

PEC Zwolle W

1.63

NAC Breda W

0.55

allows per match

PEC Zwolle W

1.97

NAC Breda W

3.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PEC Zwolle W+0.00on par

NAC Breda W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PEC Zwolle W ↓

NAC Breda W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

PEC Zwolle W or draw

85%

PEC Zwolle W or NAC Breda W

84%

Draw or NAC Breda W

32%

Winning margin

PEC Zwolle W wins by 2+

48%

NAC Breda W wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

PEC Zwolle W 1+ goals

94%

PEC Zwolle W 2+ goals

76%

PEC Zwolle W 3+ goals

51%

NAC Breda W 1+ goals

72%

NAC Breda W 2+ goals

36%

NAC Breda W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

PEC Zwolle W (draw refunded)

82%

NAC Breda W (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PEC Zwolle W at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.97 · 71 matches

NAC Breda W away — creates 0.55, concedes 3.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PEC Zwolle W attack 1.63 + NAC Breda W defence 3.91 → ÷2 → 2.77

NAC Breda W attack 0.55 + PEC Zwolle W defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

PEC Zwolle W scores more

68%

level

16%

NAC Breda W scores more

15%

PEC Zwolle W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "PEC Zwolle W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

I. Zijp↳ H. Huizenga

56'

K. Pruim← S. van Vugt

56'

R. Jonsdottir← L. Iedema

62'

I. Zijp↳ H. Huizenga

65'

H. Huizenga↳ I. Weiman

70'

S. van de Velde← I. Zijp

73'

J. Visser← I. van Dalen

73'

E. Yetim← J. Schneijderberg

78'

E. Fertoute← Y. van Goch

80'

J. Roosjen↳ R. Jonsdottir

81'

I. Kemper← J. Roosjen

81'

M. Van Drogen← M. Lindner

82'

S. de Blij← S. Heijblom

82'

N. van den Burg← M. van Houwelingen

PEC

NAC

1

Haan

2

Heshof

18

▼

Houweling

4

Verhoef

5

▼

Goch

6

▼

Heijblom

11

▼

Schneijde

14

Hendriks

27

Vliet

20

▼

Dalen

9

Franken

1

Szymczak

23

A

Weiman

4

▼

Lindner

3

Rutgers

2

Dijsselho

10

⚽

▼

Roosjen

18

Ishida

9

▼

Iedema

15

▼

Vugt

11

⚽2

▼

Zijp

13

⚽A

Huizenga

Manager: Gert-Peter de Gunst

56'▲K. Pruim←▼S. van Vugt

56'▲R. Jonsdottir←▼L. Iedema

70'▲S. van de Velde←▼I. Zijp

81'▲I. Kemper←▼J. Roosjen

81'▲M. Van Drogen←▼M. Lindner

PEC Zwolle W substitutes

16Tissingh6Pruim8Kemper19Jonsdottir21Drogen24Velde

Manager: Jan de Hoon

73'▲J. Visser←▼I. van Dalen

73'▲E. Yetim←▼J. Schneijderberg

78'▲E. Fertoute←▼Y. van Goch

82'▲S. de Blij←▼S. Heijblom

82'▲N. van den Burg←▼M. van Houwelingen

NAC Breda W substitutes

23Buitendijk8Aurelio15Fertoute24Goutier12Meerding19Oussoren7Promes22Visser25Yetim17Blij3Burg

Eredivisie Women: PEC Zwolle W 4–0 NAC Breda W

PEC Zwolle W beat NAC Breda W 4-0 in Eredivisie Women on November 2, 2025.

Goals: I. Zijp (14', 62'), H. Huizenga (65'), J. Roosjen (80').

The match was played at Sportpark Ceintuurbaan in Zwolle.

PEC Zwolle W vs NAC Breda W — Eredivisie Women 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Eredivisie Women: PEC Zwolle W 4–0 NAC Breda W