NAC Breda W 1–2 PEC Zwolle W: Result & Stats

NAC Breda W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

PEC Zwolle W

B. Franken 85'

L. Iedema 87'

H. Huizenga 24'

1/25/2026

Eredivisie Women · Round 12Rat Verlegh Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

NAC Breda W31%

×Draw23%

PEC Zwolle W46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NAC Breda WExpected goals in this matchPEC Zwolle W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.85

NAC Breda W

1.48

PEC Zwolle W

1.85

PEC Zwolle W creates 25% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 70 away

1.00

creates per match

1.16

2.55

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

NAC Breda W

1.00

PEC Zwolle W

1.16

allows per match

NAC Breda W

2.55

PEC Zwolle W

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NAC Breda W+0.00on par

PEC Zwolle W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAC Breda W ↓

PEC Zwolle W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

NAC Breda W or draw

54%

NAC Breda W or PEC Zwolle W

77%

Draw or PEC Zwolle W

69%

Winning margin

NAC Breda W wins by 2+

14%

PEC Zwolle W wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

NAC Breda W 1+ goals

77%

NAC Breda W 2+ goals

43%

NAC Breda W 3+ goals

19%

PEC Zwolle W 1+ goals

84%

PEC Zwolle W 2+ goals

55%

PEC Zwolle W 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

NAC Breda W (draw refunded)

40%

PEC Zwolle W (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAC Breda W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.55 · 11 matches

PEC Zwolle W away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.97 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAC Breda W attack 1.00 + PEC Zwolle W defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.48

PEC Zwolle W attack 1.16 + NAC Breda W defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

NAC Breda W scores more

31%

level

23%

PEC Zwolle W scores more

46%

PEC Zwolle W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "PEC Zwolle W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

H. Huizenga↳ B. Udink

46'

J. Visser← J. Schneijderberg

46'

R. Jonsdottir← J. Roosjen

70'

R. Schuylenburg← K. Hendriks

70'

M. van Houwelingen← N. van den Burg

71'

I. Kemper← C. Ishida

71'

S. van de Velde← S. van Vugt

79'

L. Iedema← B. Udink

85'

B. Franken↳ I. van Dalen

87'

L. Iedema↳ S. van de Velde

90'

E. Fertoute← S. Aurelio

90'

M. Goutier← I. van Dalen

NAC

PEC

1

23

4

3

17

A

▼

Udink

6

Pruim

2

Dijsselho

10

▼

Roosjen

18

▼

Ishida

15

▼

Vugt

13

⚽

Huizenga

1

Haan

2

Heshof

3

▼

Burg

4

Verhoef

5

Goch

20

A

▼

Dalen

6

Heijblom

8

▼

Aurelio

9

⚽

Franken

14

▼

Hendriks

11

▼

Schneijde

Manager: Jan de Hoon

46'▲J. Visser←▼J. Schneijderberg

70'▲R. Schuylenburg←▼K. Hendriks

70'▲M. van Houwelingen←▼N. van den Burg

90'▲E. Fertoute←▼S. Aurelio

90'▲M. Goutier←▼I. van Dalen

NAC Breda W substitutes

16Schuylenburg19Oussoren15Fertoute24Goutier12Meerding18Houwelingen22Visser17Blij7Promes25Yetim

Manager: Gert-Peter de Gunst

46'▲R. Jonsdottir←▼J. Roosjen

71'▲I. Kemper←▼C. Ishida

71'▲S. van de Velde←▼S. van Vugt

79'▲L. Iedema←▼B. Udink

PEC Zwolle W substitutes

16Tissingh25Davelaar8Kemper21Drogen24Velde9Iedema19Jonsdottir

Eredivisie Women: NAC Breda W 1–2 PEC Zwolle W

PEC Zwolle W beat NAC Breda W 2-1 in Eredivisie Women on January 25, 2026.

Goals: H. Huizenga (24'), B. Franken (85'), L. Iedema (87').

The match was played at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Breda.

NAC Breda W vs PEC Zwolle W — Eredivisie Women 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Eredivisie Women: NAC Breda W 1–2 PEC Zwolle W