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PEC Zwolle W vs Achiless 29 W — Eredivisie Women 2018

PEC Zwolle W
PEC Zwolle W
FT
10 – 0
HT: 6 – 0
Achiless 29 W
Achiless 29 W
12/21/2018Eredivisie WomenEredivisie Women · Round 16MAC³PARK Stadion (Zwolle)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

PEC Zwolle W80%
×Draw11%
Achiless 29 W8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PEC Zwolle W
3.55
Achiless 29 W
1.14

PEC Zwolle W creates 211% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 13 away

creates per match

PEC Zwolle W
1.64
Achiless 29 W
0.31

allows per match

PEC Zwolle W
1.97
Achiless 29 W
5.46

finishing

PEC Zwolle W+0.00on par
Achiless 29 W+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PEC Zwolle W ↓

Achiless 29 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

PEC Zwolle W or draw
92%
PEC Zwolle W or Achiless 29 W
89%
Draw or Achiless 29 W
20%

Winning margin

PEC Zwolle W wins by 2+
63%
Achiless 29 W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

PEC Zwolle W 1+ goals
97%
PEC Zwolle W 2+ goals
86%
PEC Zwolle W 3+ goals
67%
Achiless 29 W 1+ goals
68%
Achiless 29 W 2+ goals
32%
Achiless 29 W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

PEC Zwolle W (draw refunded)
90%
Achiless 29 W (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PEC Zwolle W at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.97 · 73 matches

Achiless 29 W away — creates 0.31, concedes 5.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PEC Zwolle W attack 1.64 + Achiless 29 W defence 5.46 → ÷2 → 3.55

Achiless 29 W attack 0.31 + PEC Zwolle W defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

PEC Zwolle W scores more
80%
level
11%
Achiless 29 W scores more
8%

PEC Zwolle W at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "PEC Zwolle W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PEC Zwolle W vs Achiless 29 W

PEC Zwolle W beat Achiless 29 W 10-0 in Eredivisie Women on December 21, 2018.

The match was played at MAC³PARK Stadion (Zwolle).