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Achiless 29 W vs PEC Zwolle W — Eredivisie Women 2018

Achiless 29 W
Achiless 29 W
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
PEC Zwolle W
PEC Zwolle W
10/26/2018Eredivisie WomenEredivisie Women · Round 7Sportpark De Heikant (Groesbeek)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Achiless 29 W19%
×Draw17%
PEC Zwolle W65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Achiless 29 W
1.59
PEC Zwolle W
2.96

PEC Zwolle W creates 86% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 73 away

creates per match

Achiless 29 W
1.17
PEC Zwolle W
1.16

allows per match

Achiless 29 W
4.75
PEC Zwolle W
2.01

finishing

Achiless 29 W+0.00on par
PEC Zwolle W+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Achiless 29 W ↓

PEC Zwolle W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Achiless 29 W or draw
35%
Achiless 29 W or PEC Zwolle W
83%
Draw or PEC Zwolle W
81%

Winning margin

Achiless 29 W wins by 2+
8%
PEC Zwolle W wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Achiless 29 W 1+ goals
80%
Achiless 29 W 2+ goals
47%
Achiless 29 W 3+ goals
21%
PEC Zwolle W 1+ goals
95%
PEC Zwolle W 2+ goals
79%
PEC Zwolle W 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Achiless 29 W (draw refunded)
23%
PEC Zwolle W (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Achiless 29 W at home — creates 1.17, concedes 4.75 · 12 matches

PEC Zwolle W away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.01 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Achiless 29 W attack 1.17 + PEC Zwolle W defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.59

PEC Zwolle W attack 1.16 + Achiless 29 W defence 4.75 → ÷2 → 2.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Achiless 29 W scores more
19%
level
17%
PEC Zwolle W scores more
65%

PEC Zwolle W at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "PEC Zwolle W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie Women: Achiless 29 W 3–2 PEC Zwolle W

Achiless 29 W beat PEC Zwolle W 3-2 in Eredivisie Women on October 26, 2018.

The match was played at Sportpark De Heikant (Groesbeek).