PEC Zwolle 1–2 NAC Breda: Result & Stats

PEC Zwolle

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

NAC Breda

10/20/2024

Eredivisie · Round 9MAC³PARK Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

PEC Zwolle43%

×Draw24%

NAC Breda33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PEC ZwolleExpected goals in this matchNAC Breda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.42

PEC Zwolle

1.67

NAC Breda

1.42

PEC Zwolle creates 18% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 10 away

1.44

creates per match

1.29

1.54

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

PEC Zwolle

1.44

NAC Breda

1.29

allows per match

PEC Zwolle

1.54

NAC Breda

1.91

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

PEC Zwolle-0.13scores less

NAC Breda-0.29scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PEC Zwolle ↓

NAC Breda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

PEC Zwolle or draw

67%

PEC Zwolle or NAC Breda

76%

Draw or NAC Breda

57%

Winning margin

PEC Zwolle wins by 2+

22%

NAC Breda wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

PEC Zwolle 1+ goals

81%

PEC Zwolle 2+ goals

50%

PEC Zwolle 3+ goals

23%

NAC Breda 1+ goals

76%

NAC Breda 2+ goals

41%

NAC Breda 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

PEC Zwolle (draw refunded)

57%

NAC Breda (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PEC Zwolle at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.54 · 29 matches

NAC Breda away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.91 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PEC Zwolle attack 1.44 + NAC Breda defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.67

NAC Breda attack 1.29 + PEC Zwolle defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

PEC Zwolle scores more

43%

level

24%

NAC Breda scores more

33%

PEC Zwolle at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "PEC Zwolle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff