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NAC Breda vs PEC Zwolle — Eredivisie 2026

NAC Breda
NAC Breda
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
PEC Zwolle
PEC Zwolle
S. van Hooijdonk 40' (pen), 34'
J. Monteiro 67'
K. Kostons 43'
10/18/2025EredivisieEredivisie · Round 9Rat Verlegh Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

NAC Breda49%
×Draw24%
PEC Zwolle26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NAC Breda
1.65
PEC Zwolle
1.13

NAC Breda creates 46% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 30 away

creates per match

NAC Breda
1.22
PEC Zwolle
0.93

allows per match

NAC Breda
1.32
PEC Zwolle
2.07

finishing

NAC Breda-0.58scores less
PEC Zwolle+0.34scores more

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAC Breda ↓

PEC Zwolle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

NAC Breda or draw
74%
NAC Breda or PEC Zwolle
76%
Draw or PEC Zwolle
51%

Winning margin

NAC Breda wins by 2+
26%
PEC Zwolle wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

NAC Breda 1+ goals
81%
NAC Breda 2+ goals
49%
NAC Breda 3+ goals
23%
PEC Zwolle 1+ goals
68%
PEC Zwolle 2+ goals
31%
PEC Zwolle 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

NAC Breda (draw refunded)
65%
PEC Zwolle (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAC Breda at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.32 · 11 matches

PEC Zwolle away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.07 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAC Breda attack 1.22 + PEC Zwolle defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.65

PEC Zwolle attack 0.93 + NAC Breda defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

NAC Breda scores more
49%
level
24%
PEC Zwolle scores more
26%

NAC Breda at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "NAC Breda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
S. van HooijdonkNAC BredaNAC Breda · F
9.2

Match Events

22'
Sherel Floranus
34'
S. van Hooijdonk↳ L. Holtby
40'
S. van HooijdonkPenalty
43'
K. Kostons↳ S. Floranus
46'
D. Mbayo← J. Faberski
61'
O. Aertssen← T. Gooijer
61'
N. Fichtinger← R. Thomas
65'
Simon Graves Jensen
65'
J. Talvitie← C. Brym
67'
J. Monteiro↳ N. Fichtinger
79'
C. Leemans← M. Nassoh
79'
R. Paula← K. Sowah
80'
B. Lucassen← C. Valerius
83'
S. Shoretire← K. de Rooij
87'
Thijs Oosting
87'
P. Reulen← L. Holtby
90+1'
Raul Paula
90+2'
G. Reiziger← T. Oosting

Possession

47%NAC

Shots

19NAC

Pass accuracy

49%NAC

Statistics

NACPEC
Overview
47%Possession53%
19Total Shots11
2.48Expected Goals (xG)1.46
3Corners2
11Fouls14
Shots
19Total Shots11
6On Target3
7Off Target5
6Blocked3
11Inside Box6
8Outside Box5
Passing
47%Possession53%
443Total Passes512
362Accurate Passes432
82%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
0.52Goals Prevented0.52
Discipline
11Fouls14
1Yellow Cards3
1Offsides0

Match Recap: NAC Breda vs PEC Zwolle

NAC Breda and PEC Zwolle drew 2-2 in Eredivisie on October 18, 2025.

Goals: S. van Hooijdonk (34', 40' pen), K. Kostons (43'), J. Monteiro (67').

PEC Zwolle controlled possession (53%) and registered 11 shots to 19.

The match was played at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Breda.