PEC Zwolle 1–0 Almere City FC: Result & Stats

PEC Zwolle

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Almere City FC

9/29/2024

Eredivisie · Round 7MAC³PARK Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

PEC Zwolle45%

×Draw26%

Almere City FC29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PEC ZwolleExpected goals in this matchAlmere City FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.13

PEC Zwolle

1.49

Almere City FC

1.13

PEC Zwolle creates 32% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 37 away

1.36

creates per match

0.76

1.50

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

PEC Zwolle

1.36

Almere City FC

0.76

allows per match

PEC Zwolle

1.50

Almere City FC

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PEC Zwolle+0.00on par

Almere City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PEC Zwolle ↓

Almere City FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

PEC Zwolle or draw

71%

PEC Zwolle or Almere City FC

74%

Draw or Almere City FC

55%

Winning margin

PEC Zwolle wins by 2+

22%

Almere City FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

PEC Zwolle 1+ goals

77%

PEC Zwolle 2+ goals

44%

PEC Zwolle 3+ goals

19%

Almere City FC 1+ goals

68%

Almere City FC 2+ goals

31%

Almere City FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

PEC Zwolle (draw refunded)

61%

Almere City FC (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PEC Zwolle at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.50 · 114 matches

Almere City FC away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PEC Zwolle attack 1.36 + Almere City FC defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.49

Almere City FC attack 0.76 + PEC Zwolle defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

PEC Zwolle scores more

45%

level

26%

Almere City FC scores more

29%

PEC Zwolle at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "PEC Zwolle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff