Almere City FC 1–1 PEC Zwolle: Result & Stats

Almere City FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

PEC Zwolle

4/21/2023

Eerste Divisie · Round 34Yanmar Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Almere City FC36%

×Draw24%

PEC Zwolle40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Almere City FCExpected goals in this matchPEC Zwolle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.64

Almere City FC

1.54

PEC Zwolle

1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 112 home / 19 away

1.75

creates per match

2.16

1.12

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Almere City FC

1.75

PEC Zwolle

2.16

allows per match

Almere City FC

1.12

PEC Zwolle

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Almere City FC+0.00on par

PEC Zwolle+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almere City FC ↓

PEC Zwolle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Almere City FC or draw

60%

Almere City FC or PEC Zwolle

76%

Draw or PEC Zwolle

64%

Winning margin

Almere City FC wins by 2+

17%

PEC Zwolle wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Almere City FC 1+ goals

79%

Almere City FC 2+ goals

45%

Almere City FC 3+ goals

20%

PEC Zwolle 1+ goals

81%

PEC Zwolle 2+ goals

49%

PEC Zwolle 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Almere City FC (draw refunded)

47%

PEC Zwolle (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almere City FC at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.12 · 112 matches

PEC Zwolle away — creates 2.16, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almere City FC attack 1.75 + PEC Zwolle defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.54

PEC Zwolle attack 2.16 + Almere City FC defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Almere City FC scores more

36%

level

24%

PEC Zwolle scores more

40%

PEC Zwolle at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "PEC Zwolle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff