Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

PEC Zwolle U21 vs NEC U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

PEC Zwolle U21
PEC Zwolle U21
FT
0 – 5
NEC U21
NEC U21
3/16/2024U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Spring Season - 4Sportpark de Elshof

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

PEC Zwolle U2149%
×Draw21%
NEC U2130%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PEC Zwolle U21
2.11
NEC U21
1.62

PEC Zwolle U21 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

PEC Zwolle U21
2.11
NEC U21
1.42

allows per match

PEC Zwolle U21
1.82
NEC U21
2.11

finishing

PEC Zwolle U21+0.00on par
NEC U21+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PEC Zwolle U21 ↓

NEC U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

PEC Zwolle U21 or draw
70%
PEC Zwolle U21 or NEC U21
79%
Draw or NEC U21
51%

Winning margin

PEC Zwolle U21 wins by 2+
29%
NEC U21 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

PEC Zwolle U21 1+ goals
88%
PEC Zwolle U21 2+ goals
62%
PEC Zwolle U21 3+ goals
35%
NEC U21 1+ goals
80%
NEC U21 2+ goals
48%
NEC U21 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

PEC Zwolle U21 (draw refunded)
62%
NEC U21 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PEC Zwolle U21 at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

NEC U21 away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PEC Zwolle U21 attack 2.11 + NEC U21 defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.11

NEC U21 attack 1.42 + PEC Zwolle U21 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

PEC Zwolle U21 scores more
49%
level
21%
NEC U21 scores more
30%

PEC Zwolle U21 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "PEC Zwolle U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U21 Divisie 1: PEC Zwolle U21 0–5 NEC U21

NEC U21 beat PEC Zwolle U21 5-0 in U21 Divisie 1 on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark de Elshof in Zwolle.