NEC U21 0–2 PEC Zwolle U21: Result & Stats

NEC U21

FT

0 – 2

PEC Zwolle U21

4/2/2022

U21 Divisie 1 · Spring Season - 3MSC De Eendracht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

NEC U2133%

×Draw24%

PEC Zwolle U2142%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NEC U21Expected goals in this matchPEC Zwolle U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.59

NEC U21

1.39

PEC Zwolle U21

1.59

PEC Zwolle U21 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 39 away

1.15

creates per match

1.13

2.05

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

NEC U21

1.15

PEC Zwolle U21

1.13

allows per match

NEC U21

2.05

PEC Zwolle U21

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NEC U21+0.00on par

PEC Zwolle U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NEC U21 ↓

PEC Zwolle U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

NEC U21 or draw

58%

NEC U21 or PEC Zwolle U21

76%

Draw or PEC Zwolle U21

67%

Winning margin

NEC U21 wins by 2+

15%

PEC Zwolle U21 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

NEC U21 1+ goals

75%

NEC U21 2+ goals

40%

NEC U21 3+ goals

16%

PEC Zwolle U21 1+ goals

80%

PEC Zwolle U21 2+ goals

47%

PEC Zwolle U21 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

NEC U21 (draw refunded)

44%

PEC Zwolle U21 (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NEC U21 at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.05 · 20 matches

PEC Zwolle U21 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.62 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NEC U21 attack 1.15 + PEC Zwolle U21 defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.39

PEC Zwolle U21 attack 1.13 + NEC U21 defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

NEC U21 scores more

33%

level

24%

PEC Zwolle U21 scores more

42%

PEC Zwolle U21 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "PEC Zwolle U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff