PEC Zwolle U21 6–2 ADO Den Haag II: Result & Stats

PEC Zwolle U21

FT

6 – 2

ADO Den Haag II

4/19/2025

U21 Divisie 1 · Spring Season - 12Sportpark Be Quick &apos;28 Veld 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

PEC Zwolle U2150%

×Draw21%

ADO Den Haag II29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PEC Zwolle U21Expected goals in this matchADO Den Haag II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

1.59

PEC Zwolle U21

2.11

ADO Den Haag II

1.59

PEC Zwolle U21 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 55 away

2.11

creates per match

1.36

1.82

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

PEC Zwolle U21

2.11

ADO Den Haag II

1.36

allows per match

PEC Zwolle U21

1.82

ADO Den Haag II

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PEC Zwolle U21+0.00on par

ADO Den Haag II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PEC Zwolle U21 ↓

ADO Den Haag II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

PEC Zwolle U21 or draw

71%

PEC Zwolle U21 or ADO Den Haag II

79%

Draw or ADO Den Haag II

50%

Winning margin

PEC Zwolle U21 wins by 2+

29%

ADO Den Haag II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

PEC Zwolle U21 1+ goals

88%

PEC Zwolle U21 2+ goals

62%

PEC Zwolle U21 3+ goals

35%

ADO Den Haag II 1+ goals

80%

ADO Den Haag II 2+ goals

47%

ADO Den Haag II 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

PEC Zwolle U21 (draw refunded)

63%

ADO Den Haag II (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PEC Zwolle U21 at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

ADO Den Haag II away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.11 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PEC Zwolle U21 attack 2.11 + ADO Den Haag II defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.11

ADO Den Haag II attack 1.36 + PEC Zwolle U21 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

PEC Zwolle U21 scores more

50%

level

21%

ADO Den Haag II scores more

29%

PEC Zwolle U21 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "PEC Zwolle U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff