ADO Den Haag II 3–2 PEC Zwolle U21: Result & Stats

ADO Den Haag II

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

PEC Zwolle U21

5/20/2023

U21 Divisie 1 · Spring Season - 14Sportpark De Aftrap veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

ADO Den Haag II43%

×Draw23%

PEC Zwolle U2134%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ADO Den Haag IIExpected goals in this matchPEC Zwolle U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.53

ADO Den Haag II

1.75

PEC Zwolle U21

1.53

ADO Den Haag II creates 14% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 39 away

1.89

creates per match

1.13

1.93

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

ADO Den Haag II

1.89

PEC Zwolle U21

1.13

allows per match

ADO Den Haag II

1.93

PEC Zwolle U21

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ADO Den Haag II+0.00on par

PEC Zwolle U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO Den Haag II ↓

PEC Zwolle U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

ADO Den Haag II or draw

66%

ADO Den Haag II or PEC Zwolle U21

77%

Draw or PEC Zwolle U21

57%

Winning margin

ADO Den Haag II wins by 2+

23%

PEC Zwolle U21 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

ADO Den Haag II 1+ goals

83%

ADO Den Haag II 2+ goals

52%

ADO Den Haag II 3+ goals

25%

PEC Zwolle U21 1+ goals

78%

PEC Zwolle U21 2+ goals

45%

PEC Zwolle U21 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

ADO Den Haag II (draw refunded)

56%

PEC Zwolle U21 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO Den Haag II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.93 · 55 matches

PEC Zwolle U21 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.62 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO Den Haag II attack 1.89 + PEC Zwolle U21 defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.75

PEC Zwolle U21 attack 1.13 + ADO Den Haag II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

ADO Den Haag II scores more

43%

level

23%

PEC Zwolle U21 scores more

34%

ADO Den Haag II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "ADO Den Haag II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff