PE Sant Jordi 0–5 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

PE Sant Jordi

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 4

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

G. Simeone 72'

Cristian Terán 37', 33', 28' (pen)

Iván Sales 25'

4/24/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 2nd Phase - 2Campo Municipal Kiko Serra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

PE Sant Jordi23%

×Draw25%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PE Sant JordiExpected goals in this matchIbiza Islas Pitiusas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.61

PE Sant Jordi

0.97

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

1.61

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 66% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 44 away

1.34

creates per match

2.00

1.23

allows per match

0.59

creates per match

PE Sant Jordi

1.34

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.00

allows per match

PE Sant Jordi

1.23

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PE Sant Jordi+0.00on par

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PE Sant Jordi ↓

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas →

0–08%

0–112%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

PE Sant Jordi or draw

48%

PE Sant Jordi or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

75%

Draw or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

77%

Winning margin

PE Sant Jordi wins by 2+

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

PE Sant Jordi 1+ goals

62%

PE Sant Jordi 2+ goals

25%

PE Sant Jordi 3+ goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

80%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

48%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

PE Sant Jordi (draw refunded)

30%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

PE Sant Jordi at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.23 · 65 matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.59 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

PE Sant Jordi attack 1.34 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.97

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.00 + PE Sant Jordi defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

PE Sant Jordi scores more

23%

level

25%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

52%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

Iván Sales

28'

Cristian TeránPenalty

33'

Cristian Terán

37'

Cristian Terán

46'

Carlos Huertas← Diego Ruiz

57'

Juan Carlos← Iván Sales

65'

Enric Tarrés← David Serrano

65'

69'

69'

72'

73'

E. Franco← G. Simeone

73'

Kike Fajarnes← Jaume Villar

81'

David Ferrer← Carella

81'

Ren Kurosawa← Rubén Sánchez

Ibiza

▼

⚽3

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: David Escandell

46'▲Carlos Huertas←▼Diego Ruiz

69'▲Roger←▼Mario Mourelo

69'▲Juan Casco←▼Sandro

81'▲David Ferrer←▼Carella

81'▲Ren Kurosawa←▼Rubén Sánchez

PE Sant Jordi substitutes

HuertasRogerCascoFerrerKurosawa

Manager: Alberto Gallego

57'▲Juan Carlos←▼Iván Sales

65'▲Enric Tarrés←▼David Serrano

65'▲Moreno←▼Omar Álvarez

73'▲E. Franco←▼G. Simeone

73'▲Kike Fajarnes←▼Jaume Villar

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

CarlosTarrésMorenoFrancoFajarnes

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: PE Sant Jordi 0–5 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas beat PE Sant Jordi 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on April 24, 2021.

Goals: Iván Sales (25'), Cristian Terán (28' pen, 33', 37'), G. Simeone (72').

The match was played at Campo Municipal Kiko Serra in Sant Josep de sa Talaia, Illes Balears.

PE Sant Jordi vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: PE Sant Jordi 0–5 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas